When Trump’s political ascendancy began in 2015, it was easy to assume he would soon be brought back to earth by the Palin Effect — the reality that the more voters are exposed to an unworthy candidate, the less they like that candidate.
Usually, The Palin Effect works fastest when a politician is, like Trump, exceptionally dumb, unusually corrupt, particularly unlikable, and easy to make fun of.
In Trump’s case, though, the normal rules didn't apply.
Why? Because by the time Trump came down his golden escalator he was, thanks to reality TV and a sideline in wrestling stunts, already better known than most politicians will ever be.
Unfortunately for America and the world, Trump's fame was based on the fiction — presented through ghostwritten books like The Art of the Deal and carefully staged shows like The Apprentice — that he was a wildly successful businessman.
The reality, as Patrick Radden Keefe wrote in The New Yorker in 2018, was that Mark Burnett and his Apprentice producers had taken a "skeezy hustler" running a "crumbling empire" surrounded by "local mobsters" and "chipped furniture" and succeeded beyond all expectations in transforming this "serially bankrupt carnival barker" into "an icon of American success."
MAGA voters bought into the myth
At the outset, the Republican establishment hated the adulterous, mobbed-up, con artist Trump.
- Lindsey Graham called Trump "a race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot."
- Rick Perry called him a "cancer on conservatism."
- Ted Cruz called him a "pathological liar" and a "sniveling coward."
- Marco Rubio warned potential MAGA voters that Trump had "spent his entire career sticking it to the little guy."
Consumers he'd swindled and contractors he'd stiffed also warned voters not to trust Trump.
But millions of ordinary Americans ignored the warnings.
The penthouse dwelling Manhattan billionaire was “one of us,” they thought.
They overlooked — or related to — his racism, appreciating him for “telling it like it is.”
They admired him for all the women he had slept with and his ability to feel women up for fun.
Of course, no Christian mom would let him babysit their daughter. But who didn't want to own the libs by wearing a “Trump Can Grab My ⬇️” T-shirt to a MAGA rally?
Trump was their guy and he was living the life without a hint of shame. After all, what’s the point of being rich and famous if you’re not getting some action with it?
And so it went for 10 long years. Until the lies stopped working
June 16, 2025 marked the 10th anniversary of Trump's golden escalator ride.
Despite everything they had seen and lived through — the worst farm crisis since the 1980s, the COVID disaster, January 6th, and so much more — that anniversary came and went with the MAGA hordes still believing in Dear Leader.
As Michael Tomasky wrote in The New Republic:
Trump can lie all day long about the economy, the world, Medicaid cuts, immigrants, Democrats, Rosie O’Donnell; lies on these and other topics, his base eats up. They only deepen the bond.
But when news of the Epstein Cover-up broke Trump finally pushed his MAGA cult too far.
It was, as Tomasky puts it, "evidence of a corruption that upends the very moral order of MAGA world."
More than a week later, Trump is still scrambling to contain the fallout from the scandal.
After Charlie Kirk's weekend Turning Point USA gathering turned into a bonanza of Bondi-bashing, with MAGA giants including Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson riling up the crowd's fury at the ongoing "deep state" conspiracy, Trump personally called Kirk and bullied him into falling in line about Epstein.
Trump then handed Elon Musk a $200 million Pentagon contract for his "anti-woke" Grok AI, despite the fact that, just days ago, Musk was one of the loudest voices "torching" the Trump Administration for protecting all the boldface names contained in the Epstein Files.
Conveniently for Trump, Elon has now stopped tweeting allegations that Trump himself is the reason that the files are being buried.
But "true believers" can't be bullied or bought off. Many are now burning their MAGA hats and posting the pictures and videos on social media to prove it.
Will the Epstein Files be the tipping point that makes millions lose their faith in Trump?
It is no longer forbidden among regular MAGA voters to question Donald Trump's connection to the "Deep State," the lies he and others — including Bondi, Patel and Bongino — have told about "draining the swamp" and the existence of the shady pedophile network that the "Washington elites" have been protecting for decades.
Team Trump are now the "Washington elites." They are the ones protecting the pedophiles.
If you see the opportunity to gently nudge your MAGA friends and family members toward the light, ask them: If Trump and his people will break their promises to be transparent about an issue so central to the "moral order," what else will are they lying to you about?
Here are a few ways to frame that:
Trump is not just protecting the elites, he's also...
- Prioritizing the rich over working families
- Taking healthcare and food assistance from millions who need it
- Breaking his promises to seniors and veterans
- Cutting the benefits you already earned
If Trump's willing to bury the Epstein Files, what else is he hiding?
- Why does he conceal so many details in his medical records?
- Is there also a cover-up about his cognitive decline?
- Remember how he confused Harvard with Harlem?
- Can you believe how he treated the Liberian President?
- Didn't he remind you of Grandpa the way he behaved at the Club World Cup ceremony?
- If he was suffering from serious cognitive decline or a major medical issue, would you trust his people not to cover that up, too?
Trump makes a lot of big promises, but who's really winning?
- How do you think Trump handled the Texas floods?
- Did you hear that when people called FEMA there was no one to answer their calls?
- Did you hear the tax cuts for the rich are permanent but "no taxes on tips" isn't?
- Did you hear that inflation is going back up?
- Have you seen the cost of coffee lately?
- Trump just raised the debt limit another $5 trillion.
- How does he justify closing so many rural hospitals while doing that?
- With job growth slowing fast, do you really think our kids and grandkids will be able to pay that back?
On immigration, Trump is failing MAGA voters at both ends of the spectrum: Those who don't want innocent people rounded up and deported, as well as the extremists who think mass deportations aren't happening fast enough.
And Trump is singing the praises of people who are glaringly incompetent.
Every time he tells voters that Hegseth or Bondi or Noem is doing a "heckuva" job, it gets easier to point out the difference between Trump's words and easily observed reality.
I'm not an expert in cult deprogramming.
But perhaps the fury at the Epstein Cover-up gives us all an opportunity to find additional areas where we can start encouraging MAGA voters to take a few steps back toward reality.
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P.S. This really is the time to get off X once and for all. Please find me on Bluesky and these other places.
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